How Do You Trade Forex Using Round Numbers?
The psychology of trading deals with how human behaviour affects the market. Now we all know that humans are driven by a mixture of emotions, gut feeling, and even a little logic sometimes. Your success at trading will be determined in part by your state of mind when your making your trading decisions.
Fear and Greed are the prime human drivers, that strongly affect how we make decisions.
But there are other effects that come into play. Humans are affected by cycles such as night/day, lunar phases, seasons, years and others. A huge part of the population believe in astrology and guide their lives by reading the stars. Now there is no scientific proof that astrology can affect our lives but if enough people believe in it then it will have an affect. It’s like a placebo.
Another interesting aspect of trading is that human beings love dealing with round numbers. A round number is a number that ends in one or more zeros.
People view round numbers as targets, goals or achievements. For example, when you dream of making money, do you say, I wish I could have USD 9,345,765 or do you say I wish I could have USD 10,000,000.
We are attracted to these round numbers in every aspect of our lives.
Round Numbers in Trading FOREX
If you look at any FOREX chart for any pair then you will see a quotation given in 4 or 5 figures like 1.6543, or 1.65432. Now as the market moves up and down occasionally you will see it pass through 1.6500 or 1.6600 or 1.7650.
Generally the more zeros at the end the more significant the value, and he more effect it has on human behaviour.
Traders will set their stop losses at round numbers, or their profit targets.
As the market moves towards these levels you normally see the market bouncing off these levels as they act as support and resistance points. If the same level becomes a support and resistance level then they are a pivot point.
As time passes by the market may hit these point time and time again and they will get stronger and stronger. The more times the market has hit the point in the past the more likely it will react again.
How Can You Trade Using These Numbers?
If pivot points occur around numbers ending in one or more zeros, then they tend to be more reliable indicators of reversal points. A trader can use this knowledge to plan a new trade. The probability of a reversal is higher and if you have a conjunction of other indicators saying the same thing such as Fibonacci, Candlesticks etc then you have a very good chance of profiting from the reversal.
Another way of using these numbers is as a potential stop loss. If you are going long and there is a round number close to your entry point (and the difference between the entry point and the number in pips is acceptable to your risk management plan), then place your stop just on the other side of that number.
The chances are if the market goes against you initially then it will reverse near the stop loss and then your trade will move into profit.
Once again if thee number is also a pivot point or there are other indicators supporting your strategy then the stronger the stop loss will be.
The Market has a Memory
Remember, when you look at your charts, to mark our the round numbers and see if there are any pivot points. Go back in time and look on different time frames. If you work on a daily chart then check the weekly and monthly charts. Be aware of the bigger picture. It can have a huge effect on your trading.
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