Archive for November, 2009

Fundamental report 3rd Nov

In Asia, Equity Markets were down while in London and in the U.S markets finished the day slightly ahead. This is coming on the heals of a horrendous close on Friday in the U.S and CIT’s bankruptcy filing over the weekend. Equity Futures in Asia are pointing to a slightly higher open for Tuesday while London Futures are modestly lower.

The Dollar was slightly off against the G-10 mirroring the DJIA small advance today of 77 points. Oil closed today mostly unchanged while Gold soared again to 1,054. In the U.S the ISM Manufacturing figures printed smartly better than expected coming in at 55.7 versus expectations of 53. In addition, the Pending Home sales figures surprised to the upside at 6.1% against expectations of 0%.

This is a busy week for economic data releases. Due out tomorrow will be the RBA Rate decision. The current rate holds at 3.25% and market consensus is looking a quarter point hike to 3.5%. In the U.S, Factory Order numbers are set to print. A positive show will confirm today’s ISM numbers while a below consensus read will cast doubt on the durability of the ISM figures from today.

Japanese yen and the US dollar were the strongest of the majors on a day when US stock indices pushed more than 2.5 percent. This shows that market relationships and hazard aversion are active. Actually, the CBOE’s VIX instability index, one of the major market alarm measures, went up over 30 for the first time since July. FX carry trades went down the most, as NZDJPY dropped sharply by 3.74 % whilst CADJPY and AUDJPY both lost just more than 3 %. Similarly, NZDUSD fell down 2.2 % whilst AUDUSD dropped 1.8 %, and the sour sentiment went opposite to US economic news. Certainly, personal profits and personal expenditure analysis were corresponding to anticipation for the month of September, as revenues stayed the same whilst expenditure dropped 0.5 %, the most severe decrease since December 2008.

British Pound stronger than majors

The British pound was generally strong compared to the majors; although the currency’s more distinguished action was in its drop in opposition to the US dollar and Japanese yen. Apparently, the British pound is to stay extremely unstable next week prior to the Bank of England’s (BOE) rate conclusion on Thursday at 7:00 ET. The BOE is expected to keep rates the same at 0.50 %, but this won’t even be the market-influential part of the statement. Instead, traders are going to be looking toward the BOE’s policy announcement. This has constantly been the major news event of latest rate conclusions. Last month, the BOE showed a neutral position as they announced they would keep their £175 billion quantitative easing (QE) program on and this eventually led the British pound to rally in opposition to the US dollar and euro straight away.